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Why the DIA Is the Strongest Q4 Trade After Fed Cuts
Date: 2025-09-18 18:00:47
For the first time in 2025, the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates—and it’s happening right near all-time market highs. Tom Gentile, America’s Pattern Trader, breaks down what this means for stocks, bonds, and traders heading into Q4.
Here’s what you’ll learn in this video:
Why S&P 500 valuations are now higher than the dot-com bubble 📈
Historical analysis of rate cuts near all-time highs since 1980
The surprising truth: short-term is a coin flip (50/50), but 1-year later = 100% gains
How to avoid the “30-day noise” by using a 30–60 day money calendar
Why the Dow Jones (DIA ETF) has the strongest bullish seasonal setup into December
Tom’s action plan for Q4 trading using options & call spreads
If you want to prepare for this Fed decision and trade the seasonal patterns with confidence, this breakdown is for you.
⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Fed Set to Cut Rates Near Market Highs
00:26 – S&P Valuations Surpass Dot-Com Bubble
01:02 – Historical Fed Rate Cuts Since 1980
02:24 – Short-Term = 50/50, No Clear Pattern
03:24 – Long-Term = 100% Market Gains After Cuts
04:22 – Using Seasonality & Data Beyond 30 Days
05:25 – Current 20–40 Day Money Calendar Outlook
06:31 – Shifting to 30–60 Day Data: Bullish Signal
07:57 – ETF Outlook: Mixed Short-Term, Bullish Q4
08:48 – Dow Jones Seasonal Strength Into December
10:02 – Why Patience Improves Accuracy & Profits
12:01 – Lessons From 2018 Market Drop
13:19 – Action Plan: Dow Jones Bullish Setup for Q4
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