Commodities
2008 vs 2026: The Same Dominoes Are Falling
Date: 2026-08-08 15:00:31
The machine that broke the economy in 2008 has been rebuilt — and this time it’s made of AI. Jay breaks down the $2 trillion in promised future payments that Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon are counting as guaranteed revenue, why those promises come from companies that lose billions every year, and how the same structure powered the housing bubble — which actually died in 2006, while prices were still at record highs. He explains why a nearly free Chinese AI model is now attacking the growth that holds the whole thing up, why Washington’s proposed ban could make it worse, and the one number that signals when the machine starts to break.
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Citations: https://rentry.co/jms-same-dominoes-sources
0:00 The Largest Funding Round in History
1:36 Everybody Remembers 2008. Nobody Remembers 2006
2:31 The Loan That Was Never Meant to Be Repaid
3:41 8% Instead of 15%
5:44 The Machine, Rebuilt
8:05 Take or Pay
9:37 Borrowing Against a Promise
11:30 Thirty Years of Dismissed Dominoes
12:39 Kimi K3
14:48 The Catfish Effect, Run Backwards
16:38 The Third Borrower
18:21 The Stack
20:43 What I’m Not Saying
21:12 The 2006 Question
21:40 What You Can Actually Do
24:36 The Only Number That Ever Mattered
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