Options
88% Win Rate But Look What Happens When It Loses
Date: 2026-10-10 13:00:07
This ORB backtest had a combined historical win rate of 88.4%.
That sounds incredible.
But win rate is only part of the story.
Across 741 backtested positions:
• Average winner: about $133
• Average loser: about $853
• Max drawdown: over $9,000
• Longest drawdown: 372 days
So even though nearly 9 out of 10 historical trades were winners, the losing trades were much larger on average.
That is why you cannot judge a strategy by win rate alone.
You also need to look at:
Average win
Average loss
Drawdown
Recovery time
Overall risk profile
A high win rate can feel great right up until one loss gives back several winners.
Look at the whole backtest.
Educational content only. Backtests are hypothetical, based on historical data, and do not guarantee future results. Options involve risk.
#OptionsTrading #Backtesting #ORB #OpeningRangeBreakout #RiskManagement #OptionAlpha
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This video is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation for buying/selling any security. Options trading is risky, so please read our full risk disclosure here: https://optionalpha.com/legal/risk-disclosure-agreement
