Options
Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Q4 Could Spark a 60% Rally
Date: 2025-09-08 19:03:43
Tom Gentile breaks down the recent wave of whale selling that pushed Bitcoin from $120K down to $107K, with over 115,000 BTC offloaded in the last 30 days. Despite the heavy selling pressure, Bitcoin has held above $100K, and seasonality suggests short-term weakness could turn into a major Q4 rally.
In this video, Tom covers:
Whale dumping: 115K BTC sold in 30 days 📉
Why Bitcoin hasn’t broken below $100K despite the selling
Fibonacci levels and support zones at 105K–107K
Seasonality: why September tends to be weak for BTC
Long-term projection to $170K by December based on monetary supply lag
Growing adoption: 150+ public companies now holding Bitcoin
Why Q4 is historically Bitcoin’s strongest quarter (+60% average gains)
Tom’s base case: BTC $138K–$150K, ETH and crypto stocks following
⏱️ Chapters
00:00 – Bitcoin Whale Update: 115K BTC Sold
00:25 – What Defines a Whale? 1K–10K BTC Holders
01:08 – Why Whale Sales Move Markets Faster Than Buys
02:12 – Bitcoin Drop: $120K → $107K
02:53 – BTC Holding Above $112K Despite More Selling
03:20 – Fibonacci Levels: 105K Support Zone
03:45 – Seasonality Scan: 70–80% Chance of Lower Sept Prices
04:25 – Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
05:11 – Tom’s Options Income Invitation
05:59 – Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply (Lagging Indicator)
06:34 – Forward Projection to $170K by December
06:56 – Public Companies Holding Bitcoin (150+)
08:13 – Potential S&P 500 Inclusion for Strategy
08:40 – Bitcoin’s Best Quarter = Q4 (Avg 60% Gains)
09:11 – Tom’s Base Case: BTC $138K–$150K
FREE STUFF:
Sign up Now for my Patterns and Profits Newsletter: https://www.patternsandprofits.com
Timely Free Special Reports from Tom: https://gulfportanalytics.com/free-special-reports/
MEMBERS ONLY:
Get access to all me Premium Alert Services here: https://gulfportanalytics.com/products/
DISCLAIMER:
Tom Gentile is NOT a United States Securities Dealer or Broker, or U.S. Investment Adviser. Nor is sender a trader, dealer, or broker of ANY jurisdiction and or country. Sender makes no warranties or representations as to the Buyer, Seller or any Transaction that may be contained or disclosed herein. The materials on Tom Gentile web sites are provided “as shown”. Tom Gentile makes no warranties, expressed or implied, and hereby disclaims and negates all other warranties, including without limitation, implied warranties or conditions of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or non-infringement of intellectual property or other violation of rights. Further, Tom Gentile does not warrant or make any representations concerning the accuracy, likely results, or reliability of the use of the materials on its internet web site or otherwise relating to such materials or on any sites linked to this site.
All disclaimers can be found here:
https://www.tomgentile.com/legal_disclaimers.html
https://gulfportanalytics.com/billing/
