Options
16% Win Rate and Still Profitable? (Heres the Catch)
Date: 2026-08-04 16:00:15
Let’s be real: this strategy is not a guaranteed winner.
The win rate is under 25% — currently 16.2% (12 wins / 62 losses).
But the payoff profile is the point:
average loss: $391
average win: $2,063
Sizing matters too: the backtest we’ll look at uses 1 contract, which keeps average losses around $115. I chose to lever mine up and allow up to $500 risk per day, which is why some wins (and losses) are bigger.
The real lesson is the drawdown + streaks:
one drawdown lasted about 2.5 months
losing streaks got as bad as 16 trades in a row
longest winning streak was only 3 wins in a row
This is what variance looks like when you’re trading for big winners.
#optionstrading #riskmanagement #tradingpsychology #backtesting #spx
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This video is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation for buying/selling any security. Options trading is risky, so please read our full risk disclosure here: https://optionalpha.com/legal/risk-disclosure-agreement
